Core Mortgage Risk Monitor™ (CMRM) First Quarter 2007 Forecast
-- CoreLogic releases the first quarter 2007 Core Mortgage Risk Monitor, collateral risk and fraud continue to climb --
SACRAMENTO, January 23, 2007 –CoreLogic today released the results of the first quarter Core Mortgage Risk Monitor ™ (CMRM). The Core Mortgage Risk Monitor (CMRM) is a quarterly publication tracking an economic index that forecasts the relative risk of residential mortgage loan delinquencies due to fraud propensity and collateral risk, house price dynamics, and the health of the local market economy. An elevated Core Mortgage Risk Index signals the increased potential for financially disruptive and costly economic consequences for consumers, their local community, and the mortgage industry.
The CMRM examines 379 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States, representing 89 percent of the population. Based on fourth quarter 2006 data, among the largest 100 MSAs1, the TOP FIVE markets most at risk over the next six months include:
- Memphis, Tenn.
- Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich.
- Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.
- Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich.
- Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind.
Relative to the base period of Q1 2002, the Q4 2006 Core Mortgage Risk Index completes a year of relatively low risk, in contrast to the prior three years. A driving force behind these results is the continued decline in the unemployment rate which remains at historically low levels. At this time, the negative effects of a slowdown in housing costs are being offset by the positive effects of low unemployment.
While overall house price appreciation has stopped its slide and risen slightly from five percent in Q3 2006 to just over 6 percent in Q4 2006, many markets continue to experience house price declines. The top ten riskiest markets among all 379 markets monitored have a consistent pattern of house price depreciation, higher than average unemployment, lower than average wage growth, and higher than average fraud and collateral risk.
One particular area to watch is Florida. Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and Jacksonville currently are low risk but appear to be quickly moving out of this category. All three have moved up their risk ranking by more than 11 places over Q3 2006.
The CMRM also finds that fraud and collateral risk, components of the overall risk index, continue to rise, posting the ninth consecutive quarterly increase. It is currently growing at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent. Foreclosure activity remained higher in 2006 than in years past. CoreLogic models have previously revealed that a five percent increase in the foreclosure rates increases the likelihood of fraud by more than 20 percent.
“From low unemployment to high foreclosures, our data indicates that mortgage risk and fraud will continue to play an important role in the overall health of the housing market,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic chief economist. “Fraud and collateral risk are still on the rise, as is foreclosure activity, but the silver lining is low unemployment and a small increase in house price appreciation. The CMRM data reveals continued turbulence in real estate that affects local economies across the country.”
1The top 100 mSAs represent 66% of the US Population
To obtain a copy of the full report, including a map of the US highlighting relative risk levels in 379 markets, or to schedule an interview, please contact Analisa Schelle at 415-677-2721 or analisa.schelle@ogilvypr.com.
Request the full report
About CoreLogic
Sacramento, Calif.-based CoreLogic is the leading provider of residential mortgage risk management and fraud protection technology and services to the U.S. mortgage banking industry. CoreLogic quantifies the risk in more than 25 percent of U.S. based originations annually on behalf of its clients, identifying more than 1.2 billion dollars in potential loan loss in 2006. Since 1997, mortgage originators and the capital markets have relied on CoreLogic to increase loan performance by making smarter lending and purchase decisions. The company’s PowerLogic™ Risk Decision Platform delivers fast, efficient, accurate, easy to use solutions. CoreLogic was recognized within the Inc 500 and FinTech 100 in 2005 and 2006. For more information about CoreLogic, visit www.corelogic.com.
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